Mortality analysis by age and vaccination status

Article Summary

Data from England shows that at the beginning of 2021, the elderly benefited most from vaccinations: those who were vaccinated showed lower death rates. However, the overall mortality rate for those under 50 years of age or younger was higher among the vaccinated than among the unvaccinated. The effect of the reinforcers is not reflected in the mortality data.

Read the full article: Analysis of mortality by age and vaccination status

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Anton Theunissen conducted a comprehensive analysis based on English data on the evolution of mortality by age and vaccination status in 2021. We will also publish his blog on this topic on the Virusvaria website here.

picture of total deaths

The ultimate test of a vaccination campaign is measured in ‘all deaths due to deaths’: total deaths. Vaccinations can have a positive effect on the target disease, but they can also have a negative effect or cause new disorders.

The graphs below show, based on English data, how the mortality rate per 100,000 vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. Available dates run from January 2021 to January 2022.

In the early months of 2021, unvaccinated seniors had a hard time. Covid-19, as we are used to from influenza, has been an important cause of (shared) death among the elderly. The protective effect of vaccinations can be clearly seen in the elderly – in the first months. The orange lines remained almost flat in the older groups.

As the groups get older, the picture changes. Keep in mind that each chart has a different scale. The lines may look the same, but the values ​​on the vertical axis may be double as in the first two charts. The following applies everywhere: the lower the value, the lower the death rate.

This concerns England with a total population of more than 50 million people, not counting children.

In purple in the graph, the group was not vaccinated. Oranges were grafted on.

90 years and over: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

Striking: The unvaccinated group recorded fewer deaths per 100,000 than in April. Then the mortality rate remains lower than the mortality rate of the vaccinated. One explanation might be that the weaker died from/with Covid-19 and that the strong survivors are better than the vaccinated group, in which the weak also survived.
Mortality rates are unimaginably high, but that makes sense for a group over the age of 90.

80-89 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

Here, too, a pronounced effect is shown for 3 months. The vaccinators hardly suffer from Covid-19. After that, no disease could make the difference. It is also not possible to know when the booster medication was given. The age group is not large: 2.3 million. 1 per 100,000 represents 23 deaths in this age group.

70-79 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

The mortality rate among people in their 70s drops briefly below the baseline level, if we consider the unvaccinated in the summer period. This may be a decrease in the death rate from the previous peak. This effect will disappear by the middle of the year. Also here is the apparent positive effect of vaccination (VE). In February this was about 650 per 100,000. Out of a group of 5 million, that’s 32,500 people.

60-69 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

People vaccinated in their 60s also drop below baseline with their deaths. Returning to “normal” takes a little longer than 70 years or more.

50-59 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

The picture changed in the fifties. The people vaccinated here first show a higher mortality (maybe the most vulnerable were vaccinated first?), but then appear to benefit from vaccination for a longer period of time. In January, the non-vaccinators did better, diving below the vaccinator mortality level. If you look at the scale, the difference in June is only 5 per 100,000. But about 7.3 million have been vaccinated. This equates to approximately 350 people. Only in June.

40-49 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

Below 50 becomes worrying. The two pollinators perform less well, both before and after the summer. In February and March, the difference in deaths is about 6 per 100 thousand. This isn’t much either. However, in a group of 6.5 million, 390 deaths per month are involved. For February-Mar alone, there are 780 people. Younger, so QALY time is wasted.

18-39 years: death rate per 100,000 by vaccination status (England, UK)

Of course this does not look good at all. We see significantly higher mortality rates among vaccinated people than among unvaccinated people. Again, a small difference of about 3 per 100 thousand during the months of February-March-April-May. Unfortunately, this is a wide age group. In the Netherlands, people sweep 0-65 together in a group, so that there is little to read. In England, people go away, but of course we would have liked to see young people grouped by 5 or 10 years. At this age, a lot of things happen to your body. This group now consists of 19.3 million people. If we calculate 3/100k on that: 579. These are rough estimates and they definitely need to be calculated accurately. But for the blog I find this indicative enough.


Finally a brief graph showing in percentages how pollinator changes compared to non-vaccinators in all age groups. The starting point is the mortality rate per 100,000 in the unvaccinated. For example, if it is 3.0 and the vaccine is 2.7, then the number shown in this graph is -10%. So the negative percentages are good: lower mortality.

Keep in mind that there are very few deaths, especially among people between the ages of 18 and 39. This may be rapid due to the large (transverse) differences. At the same time, the trend was quite consistent over the months with no strange outliers. It is also the largest group (about 19 million).

Preliminary conclusions

  • Only people over the age of 60 have benefited from the “all-cause mortality” vaccinations. These occurred in the early months of the vaccination campaign when Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants were prevalent.
  • As of approximately May 2021, there is no appreciable difference in mortality between vaccinated and unvaccinated, in all age groups. This is the period when the Delta variant and the Omikron variant were dominant respectively, despite two booster campaigns, which were intended to maintain the efficacy of the vaccines.
  • The flat line for unvaccinated people shows that the mortality rate remains roughly constant over the delta and omicron periods.
  • Therefore the flat streak of inoculation does not appear to be due to subsequent vaccinations or reinforcements.
  • If the effect of vaccination is calculated on the basis of differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated, it is not because of the occurrence of ‘diminished protection’ that death in winter did not occur. It is the softening of the disease that makes the difference disappear. This drop in efficacy has been the selling point for the boosters, and the second booster is already being administered here and there. (Surprisingly, pharmaceuticals haven’t been able to tell the difference. There are also bi-annual or more frequent injections, due to the rapid decomposition. There are still several million boosters in late demand.)
  • The numbers of deaths among the entire population are meaningless. When researching and evaluating vaccines, a more accurate age stratification is needed!

Possible next steps

  1. What does the picture look like after deducting Covid deaths? (And is the number really true with/because of Covid?)
  2. Measure it by age group: How many people are we talking about? Even very low percentages quickly run into hundreds of deaths. Ideally, this should be accounted for in QALYs.
  3. In this article a distinction is made between vaccinated and unvaccinated. Comparisons between unvaccinated and double vaccinated people may also be interesting. Or between double and booster vaccination.
  4. While those vaccinated after June show higher mortality rates, it can be argued that people with underlying conditions chose to be vaccinated more often. Or are there other reasons? material for the next analysis.


Source 1: Vaccination status of the population by age, from the start of vaccinations from the dashboard against corona in the UK. To download CSV, JSON and XML in Vaccinations in England, scroll to the last magenta chart and click Download.

Source 2: Mortality rates by vaccination status from the Office of National Health Statistics (Table 2, rows 1 to 641 and Table 8 for <18)

(MdH note: There is also debate in England about the quality of the data, although it is already much better than in the Netherlands. The definitions of ‘vaccine’ and ‘unvaccinated’ are also a source of debate. In addition, there are some inconsistencies in the data.) Professor Norman Fenton wrote this article on the topic in October 2021. But he did not have the basic data yet.)

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